More immediate, though, is this year’s midterm elections that historically punish the party in the White House. Which is why Barnes, who is locked in a tight Democratic primary to vie for Wisconsin’s open race for governor, also sees a silver lining in that the GOP frontrunner is Rep. Tom Tiffany, who will have to run on his record. “Being a member of Congress running for office is a tough sell with what people are going through.”
Still, a party can’t run the table in elections across the country without the money to do it. Democrats’ fundraising advantage in competitive races is real, but incumbency has its privileges—chiefly favors to dole out in short order. The GOP campaign ecosystem outraised its Democratic peers last year. And Trump remains a from-the-gut political force that can motivate millions.
The question for Democrats creeping toward election season is if Trump’s gravitational power will bring voters back toward his cause this fall or repel them into Democrats’ waiting arms. The latter is how Joe Biden won the nomination in 2020, by using the threats of Trumpism to unite his party. The numbers this year point to a good environment for Democrats, who are giving off big 2006 vibes when voters flipped 31 House seats and made Nancy Pelosi the first female Speaker. But it’s also worth comparing their standing to the GOP in 2022, when the Republicans had a generic poll advantage of a little less than 4 points; the Red Wave that year turned out to be a mirage—with Republicans gaining a meager nine House seats and losing a seat in the Senate.
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