Rasmussen says shipping may return to pre-war levels within a couple of months, but a recovery in cargo volumes of oil, gas, and LNG will likely take longer, because of damage to facilities during the war.
There are other potential complications that could impact the flow of naval traffic, experts note.
Tankers that diverted while the Strait was militarized may take more time to return to Gulf routes and ships that were stuck in place for months could have sustained damage, such as from barnacles, and may need to be serviced before they can carry out long haul shipments.
Prices could remain high
Returning global energy trade to pre-war levels will depend not only on the reopening of the Strait, but also on the resumption of production across the Gulf, where facilities faced retaliatory attacks from Iran.
“Previous maritime disruptions have typically led to changes in ship routings, while cargo flows have largely continued,” says Rasmussen. “Although some situations have temporarily halted cargo movements, none have matched the scale or impact of the recent three-and-a-half-month isolation of the Persian Gulf.”
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