Lee County residents hoping to treat mom to an outdoor Mother’s Day celebration may want to pack an umbrella.
Rain is forecasted this weekend, with the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms arriving Sunday and Monday, potentially dampening festivities but also bringing a much-needed reprieve from the region’s record-breaking drought.
More: Looking for Mother’s Day brunch in Fort Myers, Cape Coral? We have some suggestions
Mother’s Day weekend to bring first major rain in months
After months of unusually dry conditions, Southwest Florida is bracing for what could be its most significant rainfall in months. A surge of tropical moisture is forecast to move into the region starting this Mother’s Day weekend, bringing scattered storms May 11 and potentially heavy rain May 12.
While some areas may only experience light showers, others could see steady downpours. AccuWeather predicts a 44% chance of rain in Fort Myers May 11, with mostly cloudy skies and a chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Accuweather predicts a 97% chance of rain in Fort Myers May 12, when thunderstorms are expected to blanket the region.
A slow-moving upper-level system lingering over the central Gulf Coast is fueling the incoming moisture, said meteorologist Ross Giarratana with the National Weather Service, NWS, Tampa Bay office.
“This is much more enhanced moisture than what we’ve seen in quite some time across much of Southwest Florida,” Giarratana said, noting the region’s persistent drought conditions.
Rain chances Sunday morning will start in the 40–50% range and increase to 60–80% by late afternoon and evening. Monday is expected to be the wettest day, with the potential for the highest rainfall totals.
Between Sunday morning through Tuesday morning, the area could see about 1 to 1.5 inches of rain on average, Giarratana said. “But there could be some pockets of embedded thunderstorms that could bring locally three inches or higher.”
Some storms may also produce gusty winds or small hail, he added. Rainfall should taper off by Tuesday as the system shifts north.
The rain is expected to taper off by Tuesday as the system lifts northward.
While Sunday may not be a total washout, residents planning outdoor celebrations should keep an eye on the skies and have a backup plan just in case.
Extreme drought fuels fire risk, prompts restrictions
The anticipated rain could provide much-needed relief for Lee County, which is grappling with its worst drought since 2001. According to the National Integrated Drought Information System, the region has endured months of severe dryness, with precipitation running more than 7 to 10 inches below normal since the start of the dry season in mid-October.
The first quarter of 2025 was the 40th driest on record for Lee County, with rainfall nearly 3 inches below average. Currently, 100% of the county’s population is living under drought conditions, and the impact has been widespread.
The dry conditions have triggered a spike in wildfire activity. As of May 8, 66 wildfires were burning across Florida, prompting burn bans in 23 counties, including Lee. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index, which gauges wildfire risk based on soil dryness, showed Lee County above 600 this week, indicating increased fire risk.
The drought has also impacted water supplies. In Cape Coral, new restrictions went into effect May 1 for residents relying on the Mid-Hawthorne aquifer.
The rainy season may arrive early
Florida’s rainy season typically begins around May 15, but this weekend’s forecast could signal an early arrival. While the Climate Prediction Center’s broader outlook for May still leans toward below-normal rainfall, the upcoming days could bring a temporary but welcome deluge.
AccuWeather and the National Weather Service anticipate measurable rainfall across Southwest Florida, with the heaviest showers arriving just after the weekend. It may not completely reverse the drought, but it could mark a turning point.
While Mother’s Day may see some interruptions from scattered rain, Monday holds the highest potential for heavy rainfall. If your plans include outdoor brunches, beach visits or park outings, keep an eye on the radar and consider indoor alternatives.
Mickenzie Hannon is a watchdog reporter for The News-Press and Naples Daily News, covering Collier and Lee counties. Contact her at 239-435-3423 or [email protected].
This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Mother’s Day rain in Lee County could disrupt plans, help ease drought
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