Can the Iran Ceasefire Last? We Asked 3 Experts

And then again, Israel is its own state. It has its own interests. Will the president be able to restrain Israel in Lebanon? I think that’s gonna be a far bigger risk politically than trying to restrain them on Iran. 

It gave Trump an off-ramp for his own escalation—to reset the narrative from the really chilling ultimatum that he gave yesterday. But I think fundamentally, the asks of the two parties are still pretty far apart. You know, last night, there were reports that the president was going to negotiate along the lines that Iran put forward, but then now some things have come out, so that’s been denied. So it’s still not clear under what conditions these three sides are going to negotiate, and therefore how this ceasefire will be put into place—so I think as time goes on, it’s understandable to be even more pessimistic. 

Fried:  Will the ceasefire hold? Will the Strait of Hormouz open? And then, if it does, will it open because the Iranians permit it, and that becomes the new baseline? Will there be any meaningful controls on Iran’s nuclear program or ballistic missile program? Will the United States remove sanctions on Iran, and if so, in return for what? If we remove the sanctions imposed because of Iranian support for terrorism, will that support end? I have questions about all of that.