As families across Naples and Collier County prepare to celebrate Mother’s Day May 11, some incoming weather could mean swapping sunglasses for umbrellas.
Rain is forecasted this weekend, with the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms arriving Sunday and Monday, potentially dampening festivities but also bringing a much-needed reprieve from the region’s record-breaking drought.
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Mother’s Day weekend to bring first major rain in months
After months of unusually dry conditions, Southwest Florida is bracing for what could be its most significant rainfall in months. A surge of tropical moisture is forecast to move into the region starting this Mother’s Day weekend, bringing scattered storms May 11 and potentially heavy rain May 12.
While some areas may only experience light showers, others could see steady downpours. AccuWeather predicts a 40% chance of rain in Naples May 11, with rather cloudy skies, breezy and humid conditions and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Accuweather predicts a 96% chance of rain in Naples May 12, when a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorms are expected.
A forecaster with the National Weather Service, NWS, Miami office said Southwest Florida can expect heavier rain arriving late Sunday, May 11, into Monday, May 12.
Rain chances for the Naples area are around 30 to 40% in the afternoon, mostly tied to sea breeze-driven storms in the afternoon.
By Monday, rain chances rise significantly, forecasted to reach 70 to 80%, and possibly as high as 90% by the afternoon and evening.
Rainfall totals over the weekend may be modest, with up to half an inch possible in areas that see storms. Heavier rain is expected Monday through Tuesday, with widespread totals between 1 to 2 inches. Some areas could see even more. Locally, higher amounts of maybe 3 to 5 inches are possible, the forecaster said.
The rain is expected to taper off Tuesday evening as drier air begins pushing into the region by Wednesday.
While Sunday may not be a total washout, residents planning outdoor celebrations should keep an eye on the skies and have a backup plan just in case.
Extreme drought fuels fire risk
The anticipated rain could provide much-needed relief for Collier County, which is grappling with its worst drought since 2001.
The region has endured months of severe dryness, with rainfall deficits running 1.42 inches below normal year-to-date, marking the 55th driest start to the year in 131 years. Since the beginning of the dry season in mid-October, many areas have received 7 to 10 inches less rain than average, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System.
Currently, 100% of the county’s population is living under drought conditions, and the impact has been widespread.
The dry conditions have triggered a spike in wildfire activity. As of May 8, 66wildfires were burning across Florida, prompting burn bans in 23 counties, including Collier. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index, which gauges wildfire risk based on soil dryness, showed Collier County above 600 this week, indicating increased fire risk.
The rainy season may arrive early
Florida’s rainy season typically begins around May 15, but this weekend’s forecast could signal an early arrival. While the Climate Prediction Center’s broader outlook for May still leans toward below-normal rainfall, the upcoming days could bring a temporary but welcomed deluge.
AccuWeather and the National Weather Service anticipate measurable rainfall across Southwest Florida, with the heaviest showers arriving just after the weekend. It may not completely reverse the drought, but it could mark a turning point.
While Mother’s Day may see some interruptions from scattered rain, Monday holds the highest potential for heavy rainfall. If your plans include outdoor brunches, beach visits or park outings, keep an eye on the radar and consider indoor alternatives.
Mickenzie Hannon is a watchdog reporter for The News-Press and Naples Daily News, covering Collier and Lee counties. Contact her at 239-435-3423 or [email protected].
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Naples Mother’s Day forecast: Rain may disrupt plans, ease drought
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