Democrats chose Rep. Mikie Sherrill as their nominee for governor of New Jersey, as the party attempts to defy odds by holding onto the governorship for a third term in a row.
The Associated Press called the race just under an hour after polls closed. The four-term member of Congress prevailed in the crowded Democratic primary field on Tuesday to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy. She’ll face Republican Jack Ciattarelli, setting up a high-stakes battle of two party establishment favorites.
Both sides acknowledge that November’s election will be competitive. Although the electorate does favor Democrats, it’s been decades since Democrats have won the governorship three terms in a row in the Garden State. But in recent history, the candidate of the party opposite of the one that controls the White House typically wins the race for governor.
Still, Republicans are emboldened by President Donald Trump’s closer-than-expected loss in New Jersey last November, as well as the gains they’ve made to cut into Democrats’ voter registration advantage. And Republicans argue it helps that they have a candidate with high name ID: Ciattarelli ran for governor two times prior and narrowly lost to Murphy in 2021.
Expect a high-dollar general election. National groups have already indicated that they will get involved in the race, which takes place in some of the country’s most expensive media markets. And as one of only two gubernatorial races this year, the results of the November election will be closely analyzed as the parties recalibrate ahead of the midterms.
Sherrill framed much of her primary campaign messaging in terms of how she’ll push back against the Trump administration’s agenda — a tactic that will likely continue as she runs against Ciattarelli, whom Trump endorsed ahead of the primary.
While Ciattarelli was seen as the frontrunner in the GOP primary, the race for the Democratic nomination was much more up in the air. Sherrill had a narrow lead in sparse public polling, but each of the five other candidates — Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Rep. Josh Gottheimer, former state Senate President Steve Sweeney and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller — seemed to have viable paths to victory.
And as the first election in New Jersey without the so-called county line — which gave party-backed candidates a better spot on the ballot — candidates saw an opening, even if they did not earn the support of county parties.
But even without the line, the candidate with significant establishment backing came out on top. Sherrill won the majority of county endorsements in North Jersey, where some of the state’s most populous and Democratic counties are. Those endorsements came with robust get-out-the-vote operations.
The majority of the primary campaign was a relatively tame affair, though Sherrill’s opponents began to ramp up their attacks on her in the final weeks. A handful of her opponents went after her for previously accepting donations from Elon Musk-owned Space X’s super PAC, as well as for her stock trades from years ago. But thanks to heavy spending from an outside group supporting her, Sherrill was able to buttress against those attacks.
If successful in November, Sherrill would be the second female governor in Garden State history; the first was Republican Christine Todd Whitman.
Sherrill was first elected to Congress in the 2018 “blue wave,” boosted by an anti-Trump sentiment that helped Democrats pick up the open seat that was previously held by a Republican. She has argued that her experience running in a red-leaning district will help her in the campaign against Ciattarelli, and has pointed to her record in Congress as proof of her legislative successes. Prior to serving in the House, she was a federal prosecutor and a Navy helicopter pilot.
She does not have to resign from her seat in the 11th District as she runs her general election campaign. But should she win in November, there will be a special election to succeed her. In that case, expect a crowded Democratic field, as the district favors Democrats.
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