By Sonin’s analysis, complying with Trump’s request would therefore be difficult without broadly curtailing attacks on Russia’s energy sector—something Ukraine does not appear poised to do.

Lennon, however, believes Ukraine could halt refinery strikes without abandoning its broader deep-strike campaign.

“I would not say that halting refinery strikes would necessarily kneecap Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign,” she says. “Ukraine still has other important targets inside Russia, including airfields, ammunition depots, missile and drone production facilities, and logistics hubs.”

The more important issue, she believes, is what would happen if Ukraine…

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