“Zelenskyy won elections in 2019, defeating the incumbent, and since then navigated an extremely complex terrain of Ukrainian politics,” he says. “He would defeat any other candidate.”
Sonin says in years past there were potential presidential alternatives—including General Valerii Zaluzhnyi—who might have been perceived as someone who could “prosecute the war better.”
Zaluzhnyi long held that he had no political ambitions; however, in July, Ukrainska Pravda reported that Zaluzhnyi told Zelenskyy he would run if elections were held in the fall, citing sources close to both men. Sources told the outlet that Zaluzhnyi had changed his mind because he didn’t want to disregard the trust that people had placed in him.
“Ukraine is not losing, and there is so much hope,” Sonin says. “I do not see how Zelenskyy would not win these elections.”
Recent polling, however, complicates Sonin’s assessment. SOCIS, a polling firm, found that Zelenskyy would finish first in the first round in an election against Fedorov, Zaluzhnyi, and Kyrylo Budanov—the current chief of staff for the President, who has not publicly expressed any intention to run. Zelenskyy would capture 22% of the vote as compared with Zaluzhnyi’s 21% and Fedorov’s 13%.
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