“An El Niño event is going to result in a global increase in the surface temperature relative to the year before, and since climate change is trending the overall temperatures upward this just [adds to that.]”
However, some areas, including the central and eastern U.S., might see cooler—and wetter— than average temperatures as a result.
“The effect it has in North America is not very noticeable during the summertime, but as we head into the fall and into the wintertime, the effect is much, much greater,” says Zachary Johnson, a meteorologist and climate scientist.
In the northern hemisphere, a stronger El Niño tends to produce a warmer winter. Temperatures also continue to rise in the months after an El Niño reaches peak strength, meaning that 2027 is likely to be the hottest year in human history.
Yet, as the heat dome is proving, an El Niño year doesn’t mean you can expect a mild summer.
“If it was just El Niño acting, I would argue that eastern North America would be likely to experience fewer heat waves than we have experienced in recent years,” says Roundy. “But it isn’t just El Niño acting, and the next couple of weeks are likely to see some extreme temperatures in response to other [weather] phenomena.”
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